姓名 : 劉力豪
學號 : 04114140
出處 : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-47430993
時間 : 2019/03/04
標題 :
Estonia general election: Opposition party beats Centre rivals
新聞內容 : The opposition centre-right Reform party has won Estonia's general election, beating the ruling Centre.
Reform, led by former MEP Kaja Kallas, took about 29% of the vote to 23% for Centre in Sunday's ballot.
Meanwhile the far-right Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE), which has called for a referendum on EU membership, came a close third.
Ms Kallas - set to be Estonia's first female prime minister - said all coalition options were on the table.
Speaking to public broadcaster ETV however she insisted EKRE were "not a choice for us".
Nearly a quarter of Estonia's 881,000 eligible voters cast their ballots by e-voting. Results from e-voting gave Reform an even higher score.
What were the results?
The decisive result came despite opinion polls suggesting in advance that the vote would be tight.
Reform and Centre have alternated in power since the Estonia's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
But the eurosceptic EKRE saw its popularity surge, more than doubling its previous election results and garnering about 18% of the vote.
During campaigning the party pushed anti-immigration rhetoric and promised to slash taxes.
The two main parties support continued austerity policies, which have left Estonia with the lowest debt level of any Eurozone country but have caused anger in rural communities who feel left behind.
The conservative Isamaa party and the Social Democrats - currently in the governing coalition with the Centre party - won 11.4% and 9.8% respectively, and could partner with either of the main parties.
Centre and Reform have governed in coalition in the past. Ms Kallas did not rule this out again but said her party has "strong differences" with Centre over tax, education and citizenship.
PM Juri Ratas told ETV that Centre would consider being the junior coalition partner, but did not give details.
What were the main issues?
Reform and Centre campaigned on tax changes, the former to help job creation and the latter to boost state revenues.
Estonia's Russian minority, who make up a quarter of the population, were also a key issue in the campaign.
The Centre party wants to maintain the joint Estonian- and Russian-language school system - something both Reform and EKRE plan to abolish.
Both Centre and Reform strongly back EU and Nato membership.
Reform and Centre have alternated in power since the Estonia's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
But the eurosceptic EKRE saw its popularity surge, more than doubling its previous election results and garnering about 18% of the vote.
During campaigning the party pushed anti-immigration rhetoric and promised to slash taxes.
The two main parties support continued austerity policies, which have left Estonia with the lowest debt level of any Eurozone country but have caused anger in rural communities who feel left behind.
The conservative Isamaa party and the Social Democrats - currently in the governing coalition with the Centre party - won 11.4% and 9.8% respectively, and could partner with either of the main parties.
Centre and Reform have governed in coalition in the past. Ms Kallas did not rule this out again but said her party has "strong differences" with Centre over tax, education and citizenship.
PM Juri Ratas told ETV that Centre would consider being the junior coalition partner, but did not give details.
What were the main issues?
Reform and Centre campaigned on tax changes, the former to help job creation and the latter to boost state revenues.
Estonia's Russian minority, who make up a quarter of the population, were also a key issue in the campaign.
The Centre party wants to maintain the joint Estonian- and Russian-language school system - something both Reform and EKRE plan to abolish.
Both Centre and Reform strongly back EU and Nato membership.
心得 :
2015年的國會選舉結果，雖然由改革黨取得最大席次(30席)，未超過絕對多數(51席)的情況下，在組成聯合內閣的談判中宣告失敗，由國會第二大黨中間黨(27席)成功組成聯合內閣，取得執政權。
而今年的大選結果，改革黨依舊獲得最多席次(34席)，中間黨仍是第二大黨(26席)，但不同於四年前之大選，由快速崛起之保守人民黨(19席)取代了社民黨(10席)的第三大黨地位，對於組成聯合內閣產生了很大的變數。
保守人民黨的意識形態為愛沙尼亞民族主義及歐洲懷疑主義，在政治立場上則傾向反對俄羅斯。愛沙尼亞由於曾經是蘇聯的共和國之一，因此在現今的族群人口組成上仍有不小比例的俄裔人士(24.9%，2018年數據)，為境內第二大的族群人口。
愛沙尼亞在過往歷史背景下，語言及教育方面之政策成為選舉中相當具有影響力之關鍵因素。中間偏左的中間黨強調需要在語言教育體系中保有俄語，確保族群多元化的發展，而中間偏右的改革黨以及極右的保守人民黨則希望能夠廢除之。但是在歐洲議題上，改革黨及中間黨則一同支持歐盟及北約，而疑歐派的保守人民黨則反之。
因此這次大選結果，中間黨若不尋求保守人民黨的合作，便無法主導聯合內閣組成(原因可參見政黨席次組成)，但以上兩黨的意識形態差距甚大，組成聯合內閣的機率實在頗低。因此我認為關鍵仍需端看國會第一大黨改革黨能否與中間黨取得共識，否則改革黨若與保守人民黨組成聯合內閣，勢必會對於愛沙尼亞在歐洲的地位產生劇烈之影響。
而保守人民黨在今年選舉的快速崛起，也應證了近年極右派的盛行，絕大多數歐洲各國皆面對到這樣的問題，民族主義與歐洲聯盟的取捨，在難民議題及失業率議題上的討論。而位於東歐的愛沙尼亞同樣也有這樣的發展困境，更是因為90年代才脫離社會主義體系，以及在2004年才加入歐盟及北約，卻在十幾年後就面臨到歐盟的種種危機，以及極右派的盛行。因此我認為不久後的聯合內閣組成，可以從結果中看出愛沙尼亞在以上議題上所做出的選擇。
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